外国网民:10年后中国将主宰全球经济吗

2017-5-26 11:36:57  【字体:

  Will China's economy dominate the global economy in 10 years?

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  外国网民评论:

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  Steven Helferich Software Engineer at Workday

  Answered 16h ago R26; Upvoted by Robin Daverman and Paul Denlinger

  In some ways it already does. Just look at commodity consumption. China consumed in 2015:

  我认为中国已经做到了。单单就中国在2015年的大宗商品消费:

  54% of global Aluminum production

  R03;54%的全球铝制品的产量

  48% of Copper

  R03;48%的铜

  45% of Steel

  R03;45%的钢铁

  31% of Cotton

  R03;31%的棉花

  30% of Rice

  R03;30%的大米

  23% of Gold

  R03;23%的黄金

  22% of Corn

  22%的玉米

  50–70% of Coal

  R03;50%-70%的煤炭

  These are massive numbers. It’s frankly hard to describe these as anything more than “domination” of those markets.

  R03;这些巨大的数字,难道还不能说明中国已经主宰了这些市场么?

  ------------------------------------------------

  Now let’s move on to global trade:

  China is the world’s largest exporter by $600bn over the US.

  China is the world’s second largest importer behind only the US and ahead of Germany by $500bn.

  In terms of corporations:

  China is the only country in recent years besides the US to post companies in the list of largest companies by market capitalization.

  Chinese construction companies dominate the export of construction work to other parts of the world such as Africa.

  Chinese mining companies increasingly dominate the global mining industry.

  On top of all this China has it’s own version of the World Bank in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which currently excludes the US. China also recently announced the “One Belt One Road” initiative to lix the Asian economies more closely with China’s.

  现在让我们来谈谈全球贸易:

  中国是世界最大的出口国,比美国多出6000亿美元。

  中国是世界第二大进口国,仅次于美国,比德国多出5000亿美元。

  就企业而言:

  中国是近年来除美国以外唯一的一个让公司进入最大市值公司榜单的国家。

  中国建筑公司主导了对非洲等世界其他地区的建筑工程出口。

  中国矿业公司日益主导了全球采矿业。

  除此之外,中国拥有她自己的“世界银行”——目前不包括美国的亚洲基础设施投资银行。中国最近还倡导了“一带一路”,以使亚洲经济体与中国结合地更加紧密。

  Who knows how well these will pan out in the future but the point is that China already dominates the world economy to a large extent in certain industries and by certain metrics. Obviously the US still represents the most well-balanced most diversified largest economy in the world with the largest consumer market and the deepest and most liquid financial markets but China is increasingly surpassing many of these metrics as well.

  If China continues to grow at rates above 3% annually makes progress at financial reform increases consumption and reduces infrastructure investment and debt accumulation then I would China is well-poised to dominate basically every part of the world economy in ten years time. However these are strong assumptions and frankly China has not shown very much progress on most of these under the current administration.

  谁知道这些在未来会有多好,但关键是中国已经在某些行业和某些指标上在很大程度上主导了世界经济。显然,美国仍然是世界上最平衡、最多样化的最大经济体,拥有最大的消费市场和最深刻、最具流动性的金融市场,但中国也正在越来越多地超过这些指标。

  如果中国继续以高于每年3%的速度增长,在金融改革方面取得的进展,增加消费,并减少基础设施投资和债务积累,那么在未来的10年时间里,我预计中国一定会在世界经济的每一个部分都能占据主导地位。然而,这些都是强假设,坦率地说,在本届政府任内,中国在大多数方面都没有取得太大的进展。

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  Paul Denlinger Have lived in China Taiwan and Hong Kong; fluent in Mandarin (written spoken)

  Answered 18h ago

  Paul Denlinger曾在中国台湾和香港居住;普通话很流利(书面及口语)

  I am not sure that the Chinese economy will dominate the global economy but I am sure that a few Chinese companies will achieve deep penetration of the global economy and become global leaders.

  我不确定中国经济是否会主宰全球经济,但我确信一些中国企业将会深入渗透全球经济,成为全球领头羊。

  The one I am sure about is Tencent.

  The rest I don’t know.

  我可以确信的是腾讯将占有一席之地。

  剩下的我就不清楚了。

  ---------------------------------------------

  Randall Burns BA Economics University of Chicago (1981)

  Answered 12h ago

  Randall Burns芝加哥大学经济学文学士(1981)

  China has become a manufacturing powerhouse. That trend seems to be continuing the next 10 years with their major robotic initiative.

  中国已成为制造业王国。并且随着他们机械自动化的发展,这种趋势似乎在未来十年持续下去。

  Inside China’s effort to replace millions of manufacturing workers with robots

  中国正在努力用机器代替数百万的制造工人。

  However there is more to truly dominating the global economy than just manufacturing. Right now China is largely following a path pioneered by countries like South Korea and Japan. Japan stalled when it came to becoming a powerhouse of innovation rather than refinement of products. Can China avoid that fate?

  然而,仅仅只是制造业并不能真正能主宰全球经济。现在中国在很大程度上正在走一条类似韩国、日本等国走过的老路。当日本以创新为主代替产品制造时,日本就停滞不前了。中国可以避免这个命运吗?

  China has very real problems with corruption. It may be able to get around that but that is a serious issue when it comes to expanding into certain market niches.

  中国有一个很现实的问题,那就是腐败。它可能能够解决,但当涉及到扩展市场的时候这是一个严峻的问题。

  China has entered into uncharted territory with its high male to female ratio.

  由于其极高的男女比例,中国已经进入一个不明确的阶段。

  How the Woman/Man Ratio Affects Sex Facial Hair and Politics

  女/男比例如何影响性别,面部毛发和政治

  (Discover上的一篇文章)

  That will peak in 10–15 years and there may be serious potential for social turmoil as a result.

  这个现象将在10 - 15年内达到顶峰,结果可能会有严重的社会动荡隐患。

  China’s scientific infrastructure is pretty limited compared to even the Soviet unx at its peak. It will take a long time to build anything like that.

  中国的科学基础设施相对来说相当有限,甚至与苏联的巅峰时期相比也是如此。建立这样的设施需要很长时间。

  China is obviously very important in the world economy and will continue to be so. I would not characterize its current or 10 year role as domination just yet.

  显然中国在世界经济中扮演重要的角色,并将继续下去。但是我还是不会把它现在或十年后的位置定位为统治。

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